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It may be read, copied and distributed free of charge according to the conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution-No Derivative Works 3. This article aims to fill this knowledge gap by focusing on the state-to-state level of the Xayaburi Dam and addressing the factors that enabled Laos to pursue its interests prevailing over Vietnam despite the clear power asymmetry that shapes the bilateral relationship. Figure 1. The bilateral relation- ship between Laos and Vietnam is clearly asymmetric. The present article assumes that states are unitary and rational enti- ties and, by focusing on the relationship between states, looks at the international diplomatic side of the Xayaburi Dam issue rather than at the environmental, social, economic and legal dimensions. Those are equally important matters but have already been addressed by, among others, Jakkrit , Le , Baran et al. Therefore, by focusing on the international dimension of the Xayaburi Dam issue, and thanks to the data collected through a set of 13 intensive semi-structured elite interviews1 with diplomats, gov- ernment officers, academics and other stakeholders involved in the Xa- yaburi project, this article provides first-hand original information, shed- ding new light on the aspect of the Xayaburi negotiations that have re- ceived the least coverage. The remainder of the paper is divided into four main sections. The second section provides a full recon- struction of the negotiations between Laos and Vietnam, tracing the process at both the bilateral and the multilateral levels and highlighting stakes, priorities and implications. The third section takes stock of the data provided by the previous one in order to interpret and explain the different phases and steps of the negotiations. The fourth and final sec- tion systematically analyses the findings to observe the impact in rela- tional power terms. Therefore, for the Government of Laos GoL , implementing hydropower facilities became a necessary path towards economic development and poverty reduction2 and the sector was iden- tified as a priority in order to achieve the Millennium Development Goals, with the aim of graduating from the status of least developed country LDC by Vongsay Figure 2. Thus, these nine mainstream projects combined have enormous economic relevance for the GoL as they are expected to attract some 25 billion USD in FDI and generate 2.

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Three months later, on 29 October the company signed a build-own-operate-transfer BOOT agreement with the GoL, according to which, XPLC, after having built the Xayaburi Dam, would operate it for 29 years from the beginning of commercial operation that is, until , before transferring the dam to the GoL.

Thus, the Xayaburi case became the first in which the MRC ap- plied this six-month long process, which formally began on 22 October following the submission from Laos one month earlier Mekong River Commission The document concludes by appealing to the close friendship be- tween Hanoi and Vientiane and for cooperation among Mekong ripari- ans, which should prevent unilateral benefits and damage to other states.

As one MRC technical advisor explained in an interview, the various riparian countries had different opinions, which led downstream ones to demand a year moratorium to allow a comprehensive assessment of the envi- ronmental risks Vogel According to a senior researcher, Laos did not see the Xayaburi Dam as a transboundary project and it considered that the PNPCA had forced Laos to do some- thing that it did not want to and that had never happened before.

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Con- sequently, the GoL felt that it was already granting considerable conces- sions Interviewee 6. This became evident shortly after the meeting in Indonesia, since Laos went ahead with its arrangements with the Thai developer, communicating to Ch.

The report aimed to alleviate downstream concerns and did confirm that the GoL complied with the MRC Design Guidelines and had taken into consideration the comments submitted by the other parties within the Prior Consultation process. In an interview with the author, Hans Guttman, chief executive of- ficer of the MRC from 14 November for three years, recalled that: in April , Cambodia asked for more studies and Vietnam for a moratorium of 10 years with respect to the proposed Xayaburi Dam.

Laos took note of this and discussion followed until the MRC Council meeting of 8th December , where it was agreed to conduct more studies, but in which Vietnam and Cambodia did not change their opinion since they deemed the degree of uncer- tainty unacceptable. Interviewee 4 On 17 April Ch. By declaring that the construction had commenced on 15 March , the GoL appeared determined to go ahead with the project. In July , the diplomatic repartee showed a new surge, with Vietnam and Cambodia asking to halt the construction.

These declarations were followed by a visit to the dam site, organised by the MEM in response to an MRC request, which was attended by some 70 foreign delegates International Rivers The last phase of the negotiations, before Laos officially gave the green light to the project, took place in early September In fact, the news came out in the media suddenly on 5 November, while dozens of heads of state were engaged at the ASEM 9 meeting in Vientiane.

The next day, Prime Minister Thongsing Tham- mavong of Laos denied that a ground-breaking ceremony was scheduled, telling the Wall Street Journal that the event was just a visit for the press and for experts and that it did not signal the start of the project Otto ; Vandenbrink However, this was not the case at all, as the banner prepared for the day made clear.

Diplomatic representatives of the neighbouring countries attended the event, including the ambassador of Vietnam, Dr Ta Minh Chau Latsaphao The redesign has been tested and found to be viable through the use of a specially constructed hydraulic model. Even though official records in estimated that the revenue would be around million USD, this is a huge amount of money for Laos, higher than the 80 million USD in yearly reve- nue generated by the Nam Theun 2 Dam.

However, the length and complexity of the negotiation process, along with the economic — and political — interests at stake for the two countries, suggest it is important to critically examine what appears to be a clear-cut diplomatic victory for Laos supported by the investor coun- try, Thailand, as highlighted by Matthews and Hensengerth , among others over the downstream riparian Vietnam and Cambodia.

The first purpose of the analysis is to understand how Laos prevailed over Vietnam despite the asymmetry of power.

Since the outcome has been known — construction of the Xayaburi project began in and has never stopped, and the dam is expected to start opera- tions by — the main unanswered question is how Laos managed to start the project unilaterally, at the same time avoiding strong retaliation from Vietnam or any other strong diplomatic reaction.

Inevitably, the Xayaburi issue falls within the wider bilateral — and asymmetric — special relationship and involves all four members of the MRC and has a regional scope.

A senior Lao official illustrates the bigger picture in this regard, which includes four countries: two that have al- ready developed their water resources Vietnam and Thailand and two later developers Laos and Cambodia. Since all the planned mainstream hydropower plants are in Laos and Cambodia, there is no natural har- mony of interests Interviewee 2.

These interviews accurately define the geopolitical concerns that could lie behind the Xayaburi Dam, as well as its relevance for the Laos— Vietnam special relationship. The quotes above contain crucial implica- tions that will be highlighted below, but the interviewees raise two main points. First, the Xayaburi Dam has much to do with international rela- tions between Laos and Vietnam, to the extent that it can be seen as a test of the bilateral special relationship itself.

Second, the issue does not relate exclusively to Laos and Vietnam but is framed and negotiated in a complex geopolitical spectrum where the role of actors such as Thailand and China must be considered. In light of these considerations, the next section will examine the negotiations between Vientiane and Hanoi, showing how the former prevailed, and will also thoroughly assess the implications and role of the broader geopolitical complex.

After construction began on 7 November , it was possible to ob- serve signals that behind closed doors the issue was being dealt with at the highest level between Hanoi and Vientiane given that — as already stressed — the Vietnamese ambassador in Laos attended the ground- breaking ceremony and that the spokesperson of the Vietnamese Minis- try of Foreign Affairs MOFA , speaking the next day, avoided openly blaming the GoL.

Lao leaders at the ground-breaking ceremony declared that all countries were happy with the project, so it is not surprising that it is also shared by a member of the Lao National Mekong Committee LNMC , who explained how, after the PNPCA and after the project had been redesigned, all countries were happy with the new version, which, for example, added five facilities for the passage of fish. The interviewee added that the project had to be monitored, but there was no problem since members of the MRC were still working together and there were visits to the dam site every three months Interviewee 3.

The interviewee here referred to the absolute priority that the GoL had given to the Xayaburi project. In addition to these inputs from Lao officials, similar statements were made by an ambassador of another ASEAN 5 The reference to a compromise contained in this interview, and any following references to a compromise or to an agreement between Laos and Vietnam on the issue, relate to the fact that the two countries avoided a more direct and strong- er confrontation on the Xayaburi issue described in this section, and do not in- dicate any official or specific agreement or deal signed by the two governments.

Signif- icantly, however, in an interview with the author that took place three years after the inauguration event, a senior Vietnamese diplomat ex- plained that After Laos conducted environmental studies on the impact for fish and the environment more generally, we agreed. If Vietnam does not invest there are other countries ready to replace us.

It is also a fact that people and offices in the North of Vietnam are less concerned than local authorities and people in the South of Vi- etnam. Interviewee 12 The words of the Vietnamese diplomat, who cannot be named, com- bined with the positions of the Lao sources reported above, corroborate the argument that, despite the divergence of interests between the two countries, at some point before 7 November they reached a com- promise that avoided worsening the dispute and causing further confron- tation or conflict to erupt.

It is clear from the last passage that the issue was not dominated only by environmental and economic calculations, with various factors, ranging from geopolitical considerations to domes- tic elements, also informing the negotiations, making it a multidimen- sional process. The fact that Vietnam continued to express its concerns after the ground-breaking ceremony — during the MRC Council meeting held in Luang Prabang in January , for instance — could appear to contradict the findings that a compromise was reached.

However, the fact confirms the substantial divergence between the preferences of the two states and can be explained by two factors. These two factors explain why, in the MRC, the Viet Nam National Mekong Committee continued to publicly express its concerns without undermining the state-to-state compromise reached by its government with Vientiane.

The next section examines in greater depth the role of the wider ge- opolitical and strategic context, first by providing an overall assessment and then by focusing on the most important actors.

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